Seasonal Trends May Support Semiconductor ETFs

Many typically markets will stagnate during the summer doldrums, but returns aren’t all bad as sector picks matter. For example, semiconductor exchange traded funds may enjoy their time in the sun.

“Often tech takes the most heat for wilting in the summer,” according to a Direxion note that looks at historical sector performances over the last 25 years. “But according to the historical data, it’s simply not true for semiconductors. Granted they do underperform their own high returns for the year; however, over the summer they do very well with a 1.12% monthly average return, an impressive outperformance compared to the S&P 500’s slightly negative return.”

Semiconductors have historically outperformed during the summer months, returning 1.1% on average. However, that does not mean the sector is without risks. For example, President Donald Trump has pushed for restrictions on trade barriers with China, which might pose a threat to the sector. China is a key market for the global semiconductor industry, consuming more than $100 billion worth of semiconductors or roughly one-third of the world population.

The tech sub-sector, though, remains robust and has rallied along with the broader technology sector this year on the back of strong earnings and growth outlook from companies like Intel, NVIDIA and Texas Instruments.

Investors interested in the sector play have a number of options available. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (NYSEArca: SMH) and iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (NasdaqGM: SOXX) have been among the leaders of the technology sector’s surge and some market observers believe that trend can continue.

More risk-tolerant traders betting on quick near-term gains for semiconductor stocks can consider the Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares (NYSEArca: SOXL), which takes the leveraged 300% daily exposure of the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index. On the other hand, the Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bear 3x Shares (NYSEArca: SOXS), which provides a -3x or -300% performance of the PHLX Semiconductor Select Index, can act as a bearish bet.

For more information on alternative investments, visit our alternatives category.

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