The summer months generally bring a lull in markets. While July may be bucking that trend, investors should be aware of potentially heightened volatility this fall.
Summertime typically brings with it lower volatility, both realized and implied, according to research from Gateway Investment Advisers. Gateway defined realized volatility as the measurement of standard deviation of monthly returns. Implied volatility measured the monthly average level of the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX).
Since the VIX’s inception in 1990, the months of June, July, and August average 1% lower realized volatility than long-term levels. While not always the case, it’s an overall trend worth noting. For reference, the average realized volatility of the VIX was 19.51 between January 1990 and May 2024. The VIX averaged 18.52 over the three summer months, with July historically the lowest at 17.84.
What’s notable about the summer trend of volatility lulls is that realized volatility for September to December historically averaged 10% higher. The VIX averaged 20.51 over these four months for the period measured. July appears to be bucking the trend this year, with the VIX climbing to 18.04 as of July 24, 2024. However, May brought with it the lowest intra-month measurement since 2019, at just 11.86.
Image source: Gateway Investment Advisers
“Data suggests that there may be a high likelihood of volatility increasing later in the year, and, in 2024, there are ample potential drivers on the horizon,” Gateway noted. “Since 1990, volatility has been higher after summer, from September to December, 68% of the time.”
In the second half of the year, investors must contend with interest rates, ongoing inflation, a weakening job market, and more. The election also looms large.
“While the U.S. presidential elections may or may not impact volatility, ongoing and potentially escalating conflicts abroad, growing domestic debt levels, and monetary policy divergence are just a few other concerns that might impact volatility,” explained Gateway.
Harness Volatility While Investing for Income and Quality
While past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, investors might do well to pay extra heed to their portfolio risk headed into the fall this year. The Natixis Gateway Quality Income ETF (GQI) is actively managed by Gateway. The fund seeks reliable cash flow from options premiums as well as dividends. It accomplishes this by investing in high-quality, established companies with high relative profitability, consistent earnings, and low leverage.
GQI invests in large and midcap companies within the S&P 500. The equity exposures are then complemented by a laddered call option strategy on the S&P 500 Index. The options overlay half the portfolio. This allows the other half to participate in market upswings, balancing capital appreciation with income potential.
“The firm’s index options-based strategies have consistent risk profiles and are uniquely positioned to benefit from the current market environment of interest rates away from zero,” Gateway noted. Strategies like GQI also offer “a robust and persistent volatility risk premium and may benefit from potential post-summer volatility levels.”
The income generated from options premiums helps mitigate volatility, providing a small buffer should equities decline. In a rising equity market, the premiums help to enhance the income but limit upside potential.
The fund provides risk-adjusted exposure to equities, making it a strong complement to existing equity allocations. Volatility mitigation also complements other minimum volatility strategies.
GQI works well within an income sleeve as an alternative to dividend-yield strategies. It also makes for a good addition to existing credit allocations because of its lack of interest rate risk. It makes it a strong diversifier to high-yield or other existing credit strategies within a portfolio.
GQI is actively managed by Gateway Investment Advisers. It’s fully transparent and has an expense ratio of 0.34%.
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