Oil ETFs' Changing Drivers of Return

Crude oil and related exchange traded funds may gain momentum as a recovering global economy, rising inflationary pressures and efforts to cut down the global supply glut may help support the market.

“The expected global economic backdrop remains broadly supportive for the energy sector in coming years. Demand for oil remains robust driven by further recovery of global growth accompanied with building inflationary pressures, while efforts to reduce the global supply glut are underway,” Maxwell Gold, Director of Investment Strategy for ETF Securities, said in a research note. “These changes in supply side fundamentals are beginning to unravel and impact some of the traditional drivers of energy returns including the US dollar (USD), interest rates, and curve structure.”

For instance, the negative correlation between the U.S. dollar and energy prices are beginning to unravel as the U.S. grows more energy self-sufficient through increased shale-oil production. The USD is now behaving more like traditional commodity currencies.