As the Christmas holiday starts getting into full swing, bullish natural gas traders are hoping that a winter wonderland, particularly of the extreme variety, can get nat gas prices moving higher or will there more hurt ahead?
Per a CNBC report, future prices for natural gas “fell to a one-month low on Friday after plunging more than 12% for the week. The commodity is currently trading around $2.34 per million British thermal units, which is nearly 50% below where it traded a year earlier. It’s down 21% for 2019.”
What’s causing the declines? Fingers point to excess supply stemming from inventory that has been building up from the spring following a warmer-than-expected winter, while U.S. production climbed to a record high, based on data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
“A milder fall season is also having an impact on prices,” the CNBC report noted. “According to Credit Suisse, temperatures since September have been 4% warmer than they were last year, although they are 20% below the 5-year average.”
“From here, we feel that we will have a lot of volatility in the weather pattern, with some warming seen as we move into December (a big reason prices fell so much this week), but there will be more cold threats either late in December, or into the middle portion of winter,” said Bespoke Weather chief meteorologist Brian Lovern.
“With exceptional volatility this fall and the recent large speculative short positions really pushing prices lower, this recent dip in prices may have run its course,” Lovern added. “I believe you have to respect the range and view the recent selling action as a Black Friday sale for Nat Gas.”
Leveraged Nat Gas ETFs
For the bulls looking to go long, there’s the Direxion Daily Natural Gas Related Bull 3X ETF (NYSEArca: GASL). GASL seeks daily investment results equal to 300% of the daily performance of the ISE-Revere Natural Gas IndexTM. The index is designed to take advantage of both event-driven news and long term trends in the natural gas industry.
For the bears, the Direxion Daily Natural Gas Related Bear 3X Shares (NYSEArca: GASX) should continue to appease the short side traders. GASX seeks daily investment results equal to of 300% of the inverse of the daily performance of the ISE-Revere Natural Gas IndexTM, which is designed to take advantage of both event-driven news and long term trends in the natural gas industry.
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