The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDX), the largest exchange traded fund dedicated to gold mining stocks, jumped more than 4% last week, extending its year-to-date gain to 9.4%. That could be a sign GDX and other gold miners are set to deliver solid performances in 2018.
GDX is comprised of global gold miners, with a notable tilt toward Canadian and U.S. mining companies. Stock fundamentals like cost deflation across the mining industry, share valuations below long-term average and rising M&A are all supportive of the miners space as well, but those fundamentals could be glossed over if the dollar strengthens. However, GDX has been drawing bearish options bets.
“The gold stocks performed fabulously after the CAPE Ratio reached major peaks in 1929, 1966 and 2000,” reports ETF Daily News. “The gold stocks bottomed several years prior to the CAPE peak in 1966 and perhaps we are seeing a repeat of that now. The gold stocks bottomed in early 2016 though the CAPE ratio has continued to rise. We hear plenty of talk about future returns being very low and there being no place to invest.”
The dollar has been one of the worst-performing developed market currencies this year, which has been an assist to gold at various points during the year. However, some currency traders believe the dollar can rebound. While that could be seen as a stumbling block to gold, there are ways for investors to prosper with the yellow metal even if the dollar rallies.
Related: Why the Holidays Are a Good Time to Buy Gold ETFs
Importantly, various data points suggest gold is inexpensive relative to other asset classes, a trait that could serve as an upside catalyst for gold miners equities.
“t’s important because the gold stocks could be very cheap when Gold itself may not be cheap. This was somewhat the case in 2012-2013 and that is why gold stocks remained a deep value for several years. However, since then Gold has become so much cheaper relative to the money supply, monetary base, equities, and even bonds,” according to ETF Daily News.
Popular leveraged gold miners ETFs include the Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 3x Shares (NYSEArca: JNUG), the triple-leveraged answer to the popular GDXJ. The Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X Shares (NYSEArca: NUGT) is JNUG’s large-cap counterpart.
For more information on the gold market, visit our gold category.