The previously downtrodden PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSEArca: UUP) jumped nearly 2% last week and is sporting a second-quarter gain of more than 3%. Some ETF traders see more upside ahead for the marquee dollar exchange traded fund.
UUP tracks movements against a basket of currencies including euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc. UUP tracks the Deutsche Bank Long USD Currency Portfolio Index – Excess Return Index.
“Taking a quick step back, UUP has added roughly 3.4% since bottoming at a three-year low of $23.09 on Jan. 25. The shares are now trading above the $23.72 mark, which coincides with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of their November-through-January decline. And while UUP is down 0.2% at last check to trade at $23.88, it’s still on track to close north of its 120-day moving average for a second straight session, which hasn’t happened since late December,” according to Schaeffer’s Investment Research.
What Traders Think About Dollar
Recently, President Donald Trump projected that the dollar would gather momentum as the U.S. economy expands. Following the president’s remarks, the dollar pared its decline that was triggered the day before when Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said a weak dollar benefited the U.S. economy, which many observers took as a indirect support for a weak dollar outlook.
Related: 6 ETFs for a Weaker U.S. Dollar
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates in March, following three hikes last year, and some market observers believe the number could rise to four this. Higher Treasury yields can lead to a stronger dollar. Data suggest some options traders are positioning for just that.
“Nevertheless, the fund’s 200-day moving average is just overhead, which is currently docked at $24. UUP hasn’t closed above its 200-day moving average since last May, while the $24 level served as a floor back in May 2016, and again at the start of of this year. Options traders have targeted this strike, too, with the June 24 call home to peak open interest of 39,680 contracts,” according to Schaeffer’s.
Traders considering a bearish position on the dollar can consider the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish (NYSEArca: UDN), an inverse though not leveraged bet against the greenback.
For more information on the USD, visit our U.S. dollar category.