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Astoria’s Latest Market Positioning + Cycle Indicator Update

Cycle Indicators, Risk Metrics, Portfolio Positioning

Where Are We in the Cycle?

How Is Astoria Positioned?

Are We Overweight or Underweight Risk Assets?

These are among the most frequently asked questions we receive from clients.
Historically, Astoria’s Investment Committee tracked a robust set of macro, market, and valuation indicators, which we reviewed monthly behind closed doors. But two years ago, we decided to make our Cycle Indicator Framework public—giving clients greater transparency into our process and positioning.
View our latest cycle indicator update under the Research section of our website.
Macro Outlook: Cautious Optimism with Tactical Adjustments
We believe the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates once labor market indicators show more consistent signs of weakening. As we look ahead to 2H 2025, we remain cautiously optimistic, while fully acknowledging the presence of structural risks:

  • Fiscal imbalances are mounting.

  • Term premiums are rising.

  • Interest expenses are ballooning.

At the same time, we see positive developments:

  • Earnings revisions breadth is improving.

  • Policy focus is gradually shifting toward growth.

  • Equity market leadership is broadening beyond the mega-cap names.

Astoria’s Latest Portfolio Views

  • Rotate away from the Magnificent 7.

    This doesn’t mean exiting SPX or NDX entirely—but we are reducing exposure to hyper-concentration risk and encouraging greater diversification within US equities.

  • Favor pro-growth and inflation-linked sectors.

    Technology, industrials, materials, and energy remain key focus areas. However, we maintain some defensive hedges in case the economic recovery becomes uneven.

  • Increase mid-cap exposure.

    Valuation and earnings momentum in mid-caps offer compelling upside in our view.

  • Leverage international equities for diversification.

    International developed markets have outperformed the S&P 500 by over 14% year-to-date.

  • Slight overweight to US equities, but we remain neutral between stocks and bonds overall.

  • Tariff-related uncertainties are easing, and we view this as a positive for global trade flows.

  • Policy direction under Trump appears pro-growth, with an emphasis on tax cuts and deregulation.

 

Originally published June 16, 2025

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Warranties & Disclaimers

There are no warranties implied. Performance data as of June 9, 2025. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Information presented herein is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. The returns in this report are based on data from frequently used indices and ETFs. This information contained herein has been prepared by Astoria Portfolio Advisors LLC on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data, and other third-party sources believed to be reliable. Astoria Portfolio Advisors LLC has not sought to independently verify information obtained from public and third-party sources and makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of such information. Astoria Portfolio Advisors LLC is a registered investment adviser located in New York. Astoria Portfolio Advisors LLC may only transact business in those states in which it is registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration requirements.

Any third-party websites provided on www.astoriaadvisors.com are strictly for informational purposes and for convenience. These third-party websites are publicly available and do not belong to Astoria Portfolio Advisors LLC. We do not administer the content or control it. We cannot be held liable for the accuracy, time-sensitive nature, or viability of any information shown on these sites. The material in these links is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast or investment advice by Astoria Portfolio Advisors LLC, and does not constitute a recommendation, offer, or solicitation for any security or any investment strategy. The appearance of such third-party material on our website does not imply our endorsement of the third-party website. We are not responsible for your use of the linked site or its content. Once you leave Astoria Portfolio Advisors LLC’s website, you will be subject to the terms of use and privacy policies of the third-party website. Refer here for more details.

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