By Jamie Mullen and Eric Kazatsky, Clark Capital Management Group
As equity investors slowly put their Dow 25,000 hats in their bottom desk drawer, let’s take a second to talk about the biggest underdogs of 2018…bonds. Look, we get it. It is so easy to be seduced by a multi-year long bull market constantly hitting new highs. And let’s face it— even in our last quarter’s market review, we were focused on the high probability of a December rate hike and analyst expectations of several more in 2019.
But all that has changed in the fourth quarter. Whether it was the more dovish tone of the Fed, the stock market sell-off, a newly minted Democratic House of Representatives, weak oil pricing, continued tariff talk, or any combination of the above, the fact remains that fixed income got up off the mat in September and has been punching its way to a surprise quarter-long rally.
Every (Under)Dog Has His Day
At the start of 2018, the pews in the church of fixed income were empty to say the least. The mega-congregation of equities continued to find new believers with each new high that was hit, filling even the cheap seats in the back. Bonds, on the other hand, suffered a multi-quarter affliction as U.S. Treasury yields hit their highest levels since 2011, creating a double-edged sword of price loss at the expense of higher reinvestment yields.
But what goes up must come down, right? And as equities hit the skids from October to December, bonds finally had their time in the sun, with the rush to safe haven assets helping to fuel the Q4 rally.
To illustrate how far we have come, at the end of Q3, the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index was down -1.60% and finished the year at 0.01%. Over in tax-exempt land, the Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Bond Index had declined -0.40% through 9/30/18 and finished the year with returns of 1.28%.
Will the Champs Repeat in 2019?
Top of mind for investors and market participants is how long the Fed tightening cycle will last. Based on the more dovish language we’ve seen from the Fed, the answer may be not very long at all. Based upon the latest Fed models which focus on U.S. Treasury spreads, the probability of a recession may not be that far off.
Data dating back to the late 1960s shows us that the yield curve normally inverts 12-24 months prior to the start of the recession. While we have still not yet seen an inversion in the 10-Year/3-Month curve, it is getting close, with the spread at only 31 basis points at year end, which is the flattest it has been since September 2007.
We are not economists, nor fortune tellers; however, we cannot completely discount what the data is saying…and for now, it points to the likelihood of lower rates.
When the curve inverts this cycle (and we’re getting close), we will surely pay attention and start the clock speculating the timing of the next recession. While the credit impacts of an economic slowdown or a recession would point us to seek the safety of higher rated entities, the portfolio management impacts would direct us to remain fully invested to take advantage of price appreciation should rates head lower.
This article was written by Jamie Mullen and Eric Kazatsky of Clark Capital Management Group, a participant in the ETF Strategist Channel.
The opinions expressed are those of the Clark Capital Management Group Investment Team. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to change due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. There is no guarantee of the future performance of any Clark Capital investments portfolio. Material presented has been derived from sources considered to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy, sell or hold any securities, other investments or to adopt any investment strategy or strategies. For educational use only. This information is not intended to serve as investment advice. This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast or research. The investment or strategy discussed may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial circumstances. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This document may contain certain information that constitutes forward-looking statements which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “may,” “expect,” “will,” “hope,” “forecast,” “intend,” “target,” “believe,” and/or comparable terminology (or the negative thereof). Forward looking statements cannot be guaranteed. No assurance, representation, or warranty is made by any person that any of Clark Capital’s assumptions, expectations, objectives, and/or goals will be achieved. Nothing contained in this document may be relied upon as a guarantee, promise, assurance, or representation as to the future.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a stock market index that shows how 30 large publicly owned companies based in the U.S. have traded during a standard trading session in the stock market.
The MSCI EAFE Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performers of developed markets outside the U.S. and Canada.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a freefloat-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance in the global emerging markets.
The Russell 3000 Index measures the performance of the 3,000 largest U.S. companies based on total market capitalization, which represents approximately 98% of the investable U.S. equity market.
The S&P 500 Index measures the performance of 500 large companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy, capturing 80% of U.S. equities.
The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Government and Credit Bond Index measures the performance of U.S. dollar denominated U.S. Treasuries, government-related, and investment grade U.S. corporate securities that have a remaining maturity of greater than 1 year. In addition, the securities have $250 million or more of outstanding face value, and must be fixed rate and non-convertible.
The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate High-Yield Index covers the U.S. dollar denominated non-investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high-yield if the middle rating of Moody’s, Fitch, and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below.
The Bloomberg Barclays 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bellwethers Index is a universe of Treasury bonds, and used as a benchmark against the market for long-term maturity fixed-income securities. The index assumes reinvestment of all distributions and interest payments.
The Bloomberg Barclays 10-Year U.S. Treasury Bellwethers Index is a universe of Treasury bonds, and used as a benchmark against the market for long-term maturity fixed-income securities. The index assumes reinvestment of all distributions and interest payments.
The Bloomberg Barclays 5-Year Municipal Bond Index is the 5 Year (4-6) component of the Municipal Bond index. It is a rules-based, market-value-weighted index engineered for the tax-exempt bond market. The index tracks general obligation bonds, revenue bonds, insured bonds, and pre-refunded bonds rated Baa3/BBB- or higher by at least two of the ratings agencies.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a key measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 stock index option prices and which shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility. It is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 index options. This volatility is meant to be forward looking and is calculated from both calls and puts. The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk. The S&P 500 measures the performance of the 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy, capturing 75% of U.S. equities. The Bloomberg Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a market capitalization-weighted index, meaning the securities in the index are weighted according to the market size of each bond type. Most U.S. traded investment grade bonds are represented. Municipal bonds, and Treasury inflation-protected securities are excluded, due to tax treatment issues. The index includes Treasury securities, government agency bonds, mortgage-backed bonds, corporate bonds, and a small amount of foreign bonds traded in U.S. The Bloomberg Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index is an intermediate term index.
The volatility (beta) of a client’s portfolio may be greater or less than its respective benchmark. It is not possible to invest in these indices.
Index returns include the reinvestment of income and dividends. The returns for these unmanaged indexes do not include any transaction costs, management fees or other costs. It is not possible to make an investment directly in any index.
Morningstar is the largest independent research organization serving more than 5.2 million individual investors, 210,000 Financial Advisors, and 1,700 institutional clients around the world.
For each separate account with at least a three-year history, Morningstar calculates a Morningstar Rating™ based on a Morningstar Risk-Adjusted Return measure that accounts for variation in a separate account’s monthly performance, placing more emphasis on downward variations and rewarding consistent performance. The top 10% of separate accounts in each category receive 5 stars, the next 22.5% receive 4 stars, the next 35% receive 3 stars, the next 22.5% receive 2 stars and the bottom 10% receive 1 star. The Overall Morningstar Rating for a separate account is derived from a weighted average of the performance figures associated with its three-, five- and ten-year Morningstar Rating metrics.
© 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. Not every client’s account will have these exact characteristics. The actual characteristics with respect to any particular client account will vary based on a number of factors including but not limited to: (i) the size of the account; (ii) investment restrictions applicable to the account, if any; and (iii) market exigencies at the time of investment.
Clark Capital Management Group, Inc. reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. The information provided in this report should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security, sector or industry. There is no assurance that any securities, sectors or industries discussed herein will be included in an account’s portfolio. Asset allocation will vary and the samples shown may not represent an account’s entire portfolio and in the aggregate may represent only a small percentage of an account’s portfolio holdings. It should not be assumed that any of the securities transactions, holdings or sectors discussed were or will prove to be profitable, or that the investment recommendations or decisions we make in the future will be profitable or will equal the investment performance of the securities discussed herein.
Clark Capital Management Group, Inc. is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Clark Capital’s advisory services and fees can be found in its Form ADV which is available upon request.