Trends both Globally and for the USA appear to be heading in the Right Direction

By J Richard Fredericks, Main Management

The United States has the distinction of having the highest number of reported Coronavirus cases in the world with over 640,000 cases as well as the highest number of reported deaths at 28,306 (as of April 15th, 2020 around 2pm PST). Many observers have been focusing on the difficulties in Italy and Spain, but the numbers should be considered relative to the population of the country.  The US has 5.6 times the population of Italy and has 7 times the number of people in Spain.

In the following tables, we show the absolute number of reported Covid-19 cases for the 25 countries which have the largest number of infections so far but we follow that by laying out total cases per million in population; the deaths per million in population; and the number of tests per million in population … all as of April 15th, 2020 around 2pm PST (as reported by worldometers.info).

 

Rank

CountryNumber of COVID-19 cases
1USA640,185
2Spain177,633
3Italy165,155
4France 147,863
5Germany133,456
6UK98,476
7China82,295
8Iran76,389
9Turkey69,392
10Belgium33,573
11Brazil28,320
12Canada28,205
13Netherlands28,153
14Switzerland26,336
15Russia24,490
16Portugal18,091
17Austria14,336
18Ireland12,547
19Israel12,501
20India12,322
21Sweden11,927
22Peru11,475
23S. Korea10,591
24Chile8,273
25Japan8,100

 

 

Rank

CountryCOVID-19 cases per million of population
1India9
2China57
3Japan64
4Brazil133
5Russia168
6S. Korea207
7Peru348
8Chile433
9Canada747
10Turkey823
11Iran909
12Sweden1,181
13Israel1,444
14UK1,451
15Austria1,592
16Germany1,593
17Netherlands1,643
18Portugal1,774
19USA1,934
20France2,265
21Ireland2,541
22Italy2,732
23Belgium2,897
24Switzerland3,043
25Spain3,799

 

It remains too early to really feel comfortable that the numbers are truly accurate for all countries as we believe that some countries may not be entirely truthful (think China and Russia) while some may not yet have the capability to keeping close tabs on the numbers (Iran, Brazil). The numerator of the equation – the number of cases for people who have actually contracted the Coronavirus is fairly well known, but the denominator of the equation – the number of those that currently have or have had the virus is not well known as the testing has not been extensive and/or universally applied.

 

Rank

CountryCOVID-19 deaths per million of population
1India0.3
2Japan1
3Russia1
4China2
5S. Korea4
6Chile5
7Brazil8
8Peru8
9Israel15
10Turkey18
11Canada27
12Germany43
13Austria44
14Iran57
15Portugal59
16USA86
17Ireland90
18Sweden119
19Switzerland143
20Netherlands183
21UK190
22France263
23Italy358
24Belgium383
25Spain397

 

 

 

Rank

CountryNumber of tests per million of population
1Switzerland22,993
2Germany20,629
3Portugal18,798
4Italy18,481
5Ireland18,358
6Austria17,410
7Israel13,557
8Spain12,833
9Canada11,942
10Belgium11,056
11S. Korea10,426
12Russia10,402
13USA9,728
14Netherlands8,220
15Sweden7,387
16UK5,876
17Turkey5,664
18France5,114
19Chile4,806
20Iran3,562
21Peru3,318
22Japan708
23Brazil296
24India177
25ChinaN/A

 

The standout of the Top 25 countries ranked by number of COVID-19 cases is South Korea, which has relatively few deaths per million of population (only 4) while testing slightly more than 10,000 per million of population. While that latter number would rank 11th highest of the Top 25 countries, South Korea was very early and very aggressive with their testing.

While not amongst the Top 25 countries with the largest number of COVID-19 cases, Taiwan is a real standout (especially given their proximity to China) with only 395 cases and 6 deaths. Sized by population, Taiwan has had only 17 cases per million people, 0.3 deaths per million, and 2,089 tests per million in population.

At this point, the USA numbers are essentially around the middle of the experience of the 25 countries.  As noted above, the US has the largest number of reported cases, but on a population adjusted view, our country currently would rank either in the middle of the experience of nations with the 25 highest reported number of cases, or a bit below the middle of the pack.

Relative to our country’s total population, the USA would rank 19th out of 25 countries for the number of cases per million in population (1,934 cases per million); but we would rank 16th in deaths per million (86 per million) and rank 13th in tests per million (9,728 per million). After a slow start, the number of test kits are finally starting to become more widespread, which should result in a better reported experience and move the USA numbers to better levels.

We are particularly encouraged that recent numbers suggest a peaking trend in the total number of cases and deaths from the virus. As evidence, since the beginning of April, the number of new cases per day has been essentially flat with the figures trending from 26,655 on April 1st to 26,299 on April 15th. At the same time, the daily reported recoveries have now surpassed the number of newly reported deaths, as the number of recoveries have increased more than fivefold from 9,147 on April 1st to 47,942 on April 15th.

We are encouraged that the trends are starting to move in the right direction.

A pioneer in managing all-ETF portfolios, Main Management LLC is committed to delivering liquid, transparent and cost-effective investment solutions. By combining asset allocation insights with smart implementation vehicles, Main Management offers a unique approach that translates into distinct advantages for our clients, including diversification, cost efficiency, tax awareness and transparency. http://www.mainmgt.com