Despite interest rates remaining high and signs that the labor market is cooling — among other macroeconomic headwinds — it appears the U.S. economy will skirt a recession and the consumer will remain mostly confident.
That’s good news on multiple fronts, not the least of which is the fact that consumer spending is the primary driver of GDP in this country. Consumers feeling content also brings with it positive implications for a variety of assets. These include the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) and the Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQM). The two Invesco exchange traded funds allocate 12.52% of their portfolios to consumer cyclical stocks, making that the third-largest sector exposure in the ETFs.
Led by Amazon (AMZN), QQQ and QQQM are homes to a dozen consumer discretionary stocks. Alone, that’s not a massive number. But there is depth in the ETFs’ consumer cyclical exposure. That includes the broad reach of Amazon, several international holdings, a redemption story in Starbucks (SBUX), and more.
QQQ Consumer Holdings Can Extend Strength
There’s just over two months before Election Day, and while electoral politics can trigger equity market volatility, there hasn’t been a negative impact as of yet on consumer sentiment. In fact, data indicates consumers have felt increasingly sanguine since President Biden announced he wouldn’t seek a second term.
“Their net sentiment toward the economy improved from negative -23 percent to -1 percent. Net expectations are also really positive for those who identify as liberal. Net sentiment for very liberal respondents is +34 percent, while it’s +20 percent for more somewhat liberal ones. Expectations for conservatives are still negative though. But they have improved since the prior wave of our survey,” noted Michelle Weaver, Morgan Stanley’s U.S. thematic strategist.
Beyond politics, there are seasonal factors that could bode well for the consumer discretionary names residing in QQQ and QQQM. Those are namely, back-to-school shopping and the desire of some folks to notch one final vacation, perhaps over Labor Day weekend, before the onset of autumn. QQQ and QQQM have ties to both themes.
“Consumers are reporting they’re planning to spend more this back-to-school season versus last year. We saw an increase of 35 percent in spending intentions,” added Weaver. “And then when we think about the different back to school categories people are spending on, apparel saw the biggest net increase in spending plans versus last year. But we also saw an increase for school supplies and electronics. So, all things very important as the kids go back to school or people go off to college.”
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