More than seven months into 2017, many investors by now know about the U.S. dollar’s struggles. Down 8.4% year-to-date, the PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSEArca: UUP), the tracking exchange traded fund for the U.S. Dollar Index, is one of the worst-performing currency exchange traded funds this year.
UUP tracks the price movement of the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies, including the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc. Other currencies, including the Australian dollar, yen and Canadian dollar have recently been gaining momentum against the greenback.
Although the greenback has been a currency laggard this year, that is not stopping some currency market observers from calling the anti-dollar trade crowded or some analysts from speculating that the U.S. currency is long overdue for a rebound.
“It is too early to declare the dollar is heading into a protracted decline despite experiencing a rough 2017, especially against the euro, Goldman Sachs said on Wednesday,” reports Reuters. “Perception of a stalled agenda on tax reform in Washington, soft domestic inflation and wage growth and a possible change of leadership at the Federal Reserve have hurt the dollar in the first eight months of this year, according to two analysts at the New York-based U.S. investment bank.”
The WisdomTree Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Bullish Fund (NYSEARCA: USDU) has performed slightly better than UUP this year, which is to say USDU has been less bad than UUP.
USDU tracks the dollar against a broader group of developed and emerging market currencies in an attempt to outperform the Bloomberg Dollar Total Return Index. That ETF features exposure to emerging markets currencies whereas UUP only measures the dollar against major developed market currencies.
“The greenback has weakened sharply versus the euro losing nearly 12 percent, according to Reuters data,” according to Reuters. “The Goldman analysts revised their 12-month forecast for the euro against the dollar to $1.15 from $1.05.”
Related: Anti-Dollar Trade may be too Crowded
The CurrencyShares Euro Currency Trust (NYSEArca: FXE), which tracks the euro’s price movements against the dollar, is one of this year’s best-performing developed market currency exchange traded funds. Traders have recently been abandoning short positions on the euro, potentially signaling more upside for the common currency against the dollar.
For more information on the USD, visit our U.S. dollar category.
The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are solely those of Tom Lydon, and may not actually come to pass. Information on this site should not be used or construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any product.