On a YTD basis, bitcoin has been an outstanding, topping traditional asset classes by wide margins. However, critics are apt to point to the bulk of the cryptocurrency’s 2024 gains being confined to Q1.
That indicates, as has been widely documented, the debuts of spot bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. propelled prices. On the other hand, there wasn’t much of post-halving rally this year. Bitcoin’s quadrennial halving, which reduces rewards to miners, occurred in April. That was after the digital currency hit an all-time above $73,000 in early March.
Since then, there was one earnest run to those highs — in May — but it ultimately failed. Over the past several months, the largest cryptocurrency has been range-bound. But some market observers believe that’s about to change for the better.
History Could Be a Guide for Bitcoin
In financial markets it’s frequently said that history doesn’t always repeat, but it often rhymes. Naysayers might argue that sentiment isn’t applicable to bitcoin because the asset is young. it’s been around for just 15 years. On the other hand, that’s arguably a long time frame, particularly when it comes to gauging bitcoin’s post-halving behavior.
Some bitcoin bulls are hoping history repeats. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital notes that Tuesday marks 161 days since the most recent halving, observing that was the exact amount of time it took for the cryptocurrency to start a new rally following the 2020 halving.
Obviously, this time could be different simply because of the law of large numbers. In 2020, when bitcoin’s post-halving acceleration began in earnest, it was trading around $9,000 before more than quintupling by the late first quarter of 2021. Asking for that type of appreciation this time around may be too demanding. But some near- to medium-term upside is possible.
When it comes to post-halving rallies taking awhile to appear, 2020 isn’t a one-off. As Rekt Capital notes, bitcoin’s surge following its 2016 halving took 154 days to start.
“History doesn’t always repeat in a copy-paste manner But if it does in this cycle… Then Bitcoin should be breaking out from its ReAccumulation Range in the next handful of days, this week,” said the analyst in a post on X.
Time will tell if those predictions prove accurate. But there is some evidence mounting in favor of bitcoin. As of late Monday, the digital currency was higher 9.35% over the past week.
For more news, information, and analysis, visit the Crypto Channel.