Experienced equity investors know the saying “sell in May and go away.” That references the weaker six-month stretch of the year for stocks. It doesn’t always hold, because there are plenty of occasions of stocks rising in some or all of those months. But history confirms the May-through-October period is tougher on stocks than is the November-through-April time frame. It’s young relative to stocks and bonds. But bitcoin has its own seasonal trends, including one that should be considered now.
On an albeit brief historical basis, August is the worst month of the year for the largest cryptocurrency. It notched just three positive showings on a monthly basis in August. Its losses have ranged from 5% to 20%, according to 10x Research.
Obviously, it’d be negative for HODLers if the digital currency lives up to its negative August precedent. On the other hand, a near-term decline could be the buying opportunity investors have been waiting for with bitcoin and ETFs like the Coinshares Valkyrie Bitcoin Fund (BRRR). Like bitcoin, BRRR has been on a torrid pace of late, gaining nearly 11% last month. So a pullback could be healthy and not an indictment of underlying fundamentals.
Bitcoin, BRRR August Possibilities
Seasonal trends aren’t guaranteed to repeat. But in the event bitcoin retreats this month, 10x Research notes that if the digital currency labors below $117,000, it could retest support at $112,000. From there, $106,000 to $110,000 could come into play.
That doesn’t sound inviting. But it could present late-arriving investors with the chance to get involved with bitcoin or BRRR at more favorable prices than are available today.
“Bitcoin is approaching a critical inflection point—not just driven by seasonal trends or market structure, but by a key on-chain indicator that may offer early insight into its next major move,” noted 10x.
For those hoping bitcoin retreats this month so they can get in the game or add to existing positions, it’s worth noting that 10x points out that its seasonal has been on point for five consecutive months. Given the cryptocurrency’s August track record, adding a sixth month to that streak isn’t a stretch.
On the other hand, bitcoin can defy seasonality. It typically falters in January, but it surged in the first month of 2025. Another historical anecdote to consider: The three Augusts that bitcoin traded higher were 2013, 2017, and 2021. That pattern implies this could be the year in which the asset defies August precedent.
For more news, information, and strategy, visit the CoinShares Crypto ETF Hub.
