Bitcoin is 18 months removed from its most recent and fourth halving. Halving makes mining rewards hard to come by while historically leading to higher prices for the largest cryptocurrency.
Its history, albeit brief compared to other assets, indicates the digital currency typically rallies immediately following the halving. Those gains are reduced or outright eliminated due to a subsequent bear market. Then prices would stabilize and later gradually rise in anticipation of the next halving — hence all the past talk about bitcoin moving in four-year cycles.
In what could be good news for HODLers and investors engaged with ETFs like the Coinshares Valkyrie Bitcoin Fund (BRRR), the effects of bitcoin’s four-year cycle appear to be waning. That confirms the cryptocurrency and BRRR can generate upside without the halving catalyst.
Bitcoin Cycle Is Changing
Interestingly, BRRR and friends may be playing an active role in ushering out the four-year cycle notion.
“The main factor was the U.S. approval of bitcoin exchange-traded funds which began trading in January 2024. ETFs track the price movement of bitcoin without an investor actually having to own the cryptocurrency itself,” reported Arjun Kharpal for CNBC.
Said another way, spot bitcoin ETFs like BRRR have brought new buyers into the market. That potentially reduces the need for halvings to act as bitcoin price boosters. Moreover, bitcoin ETF issuers often buy more of the cryptocurrency than is mined on a given day, so those funds are reducing supply. And end users are often long-term investors, meaning they’re not near-term sellers. Put it all together and it’s not necessarily a bad thing if bitcoin’s four-year pattern wanes or goes away.
“If this often predictable pattern is broken, it would have significant implications for the way investors assess the cryptocurrency’s price action and the potential timing of when to invest in bitcoin,” according to CNBC.
Bitcoin and BRRR investors who want to know if the cycle is broken will have to be patient. That’s because the key answer will be whether the digital currency will deliver positive returns in 2026. Market participants don’t have crystal balls. But the stars could be aligning for the cryptocurrency to extend its bullishness into next year and beyond.
Favorable factors include not only demand stoked by ETFs, but the thought that the Federal Reserve is now backed into a corner and must soon lower interest rates to prop up the U.S. economy. That’s a move that would likely be constructive for bitcoin.
For more news, information, and strategy, visit the CoinShares Crypto ETF Hub.
