“The REIT stock valuation bubble risk may now be moot (the pendulum has swung meaningfully, removing valuation concerns), but are we now more aware of the bubble risk at the asset level? The answer is yes, we think, but only at the margin. The spread between real estate cap rates and the implied cost of capital remains comfortably wide enough to fend off a bubble, in our view,” according to a Mizuho note posted by Teresa Rivas of Barron’s.
After this year’s run, REITs may be starting to look pricey. Additionally, some market observers believe enthusiasm for real estate becoming the eleventh GICS sector, which was made official in September, was baked into the sector before the event happened. There are other issues to consider as well.
“But a Trump presidency clearly adds an incremental element of economic and cost of capital uncertainty (particularly debt costs). We discuss these issues in more detail later in this report with perspective on how to navigate the changing environment through the lens of US property sectors and individual stock recommendations,” according to the Mizuho note seen in Barron’s.
For more information on real estate investment trusts, visit our REITs category.