While the excitement of equities often earns the headline, it seems fixed income is finally getting the spotlight. This fervor comes amid a groundswell of concern among investors witnessing rising yields.
Furthermore, all-time high durations in the U.S. bond market have done little to ease concerns. Let’s take a look at some of the figures over the past few weeks.
The 10-year Treasury yield experienced the largest increase in 15 years over just the previous two weeks, rising nearly 100 bp (1.36% to 2.34%) from its July post-Brexit low. This represents a round trip from its 2015 closing yield of 2.27%. The journey began with a 100 bp decline early in the year, and now, following the Trump election, it has risen 100 bp. However, many expect these yield levels to abate despite these dramatic, short-term swings. In the meantime, investors have eschewed Treasuries for equities as the inauguration looms closer and investors seek to capitalize on relaxed regulations and thus strong U.S. growth.
Our expectation is that the pace of the back up in yields will slow. These bold movements have created a widespread sentiment of pessimism among bondholders. As a result, we may witness this area hold and see yields consolidate. Our intermediate-term stance is that the 3.0% level on the 10-year Treasury note, which represents the January 2014 high, is key to the long-term outlook.