“The prospect of a December interest rate hike (and higher interest rates, in general) is reflected by the shift in leadership in the equity markets. Defensive sectors like gold, real estate and utilities have given way to the technology, energy, materials, and industrial sectors that are more closely tied to the performance of the economy. The financial sector moved into the top five in relative strength. A strong financial sector has leading and bullish implications for the stock market longer term,” according to See It Market.
Financial entities like banks will benefit from expanding margins as rates climb. A rising rate environment may reflect a strengthening U.S. economy, and a healthier economy would help borrowers have an easier time repaying loans, with banks stuck with fewer non-performing assets. Moreover, rising rates means that banks will generate greater revenue from the spread between what they pay deposit savers and the prime rates they charge credit-worthy clients and other highly-rated debt.
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After parting ways with real estate, ETFs like XLF are now more heavily allocated to traditional banks and insurance providers, companies that positively correlated to rising interest rates.
“The fed funds futures market discounts the probability of a November federal reserve interest rate hike but puts the odds of a December interest rate hike at 66%. Stocks are likely to remain range bound with the risk to 2120 and reward to 2190 using the S&P 500 Index,” reports See It Market.