The iShares Silver Trust (NYSEArca: SLV) and ETFS Physical Silver Shares (NYSEArca: SIVR) are each still up more than 26% year-to-date, but recently, silver has encountered a rough patch. Over the past month, SLV and SIVR are off 10.5%.
That is nearly twice the loss incurred by the comparable gold exchange traded products over the same period. However, some analysts and market observers believe silver can soar again next year.
The recent declines experienced by SLV and SIVR have the benchmark silver ETFs trading close to their 200-day moving averages, an area that is currently acting as support. Still, the technical outlook for these funds is currently tenuous.
Silver ETFs declined in August as some market participants started pricing in a rate hike from the Federal Reserve later this year and its potential impact on precious metals.
Silver and other precious metals enjoyed safe-haven demand as the equities market plunged into a correction. The metal also maintained its momentum as the Federal Reserve lowered its interest rate outlook to only one or two hikes this year from a previously expected four rate hikes.
Looking to next year, forecasts are in place for more upside for the white metal.
“Applying variable inputs into the simple model yield a constructive outlook for silver. Our base case scenario for gold is that it could fall in the range of $1400 to $1450/oz in 2017 driven by continued elevated speculative positioning by investors and slightly stronger dollar. While US Dollar appreciation is usually negative for gold, we see a synchronization occurring between gold and the US Dollar which have the potential to rally simultaneously, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) chases inflation higher against a backdrop of global monetary stimulus,” according to a note from ETF Securities posted by Teresa Rivas of Barron’s.