The ECB’s bond purchasing program has helped depress yields, support the local debt market and weaken the euro currency. The EUR, though, strengthened this year against the USD on speculation that the ECB was reaching its limit on easing.
Deutsche Bank AG projects that the EUR could continue to depreciate against the USD, predicting a $1.05 end price by the year-end, compared to median estimates of $1.10, reports Lananh Nguyen for Bloomberg.
“We’re at $1.05, which in the scheme of such a narrow range feels aggressive. But really it could be a two-day trading range if the Italian referendum voted ‘no’ for example, and the Fed soon thereafter hiked rates, you’d get to $1.05 fairly easily,” Alan Ruskin, global co-head of foreign-exchange research at Deutsche Bank, told Bloomberg, referring to a vote on constitutional change sin Italy and the Federal Reserve’s December policy meeting.
With the euro currency weakening against the greenback, Europe currency hedged ETFs, which try to diminish the negative effects of a weakening domestic currency, have outperformed. Over the past three months, the Deutsche X-trackers MSCI EMU Hedged Equity ETF (NYSEArca: DBEZ) was up 5.1%, iShares Currency Hedged MSCI EMU ETF (NYSEArca: HEZU) rose 4.9% and WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity Fund (NYSEArca: HEDJ) gained 5.1%.
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