Commodity ETFs May Experience Seasonal Weakness in September

Commodity exchange traded funds are subject to seasonal trends as certain supply and demand dynamics shift through the year. In September, energy and silver ETFs could suffer through a changing trend.

For starters, the United States Oil Fund (NYSEArca: USO), which tracks West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures, has historically underperformed in September, only inching higher 30% of the time and typically falling by 3.5% for the month, writes Cory Mitchell for Investopedia.

SEE MORE: Oil ETF Debate Heats up

USO was down 3.6% Thursday and has already declined 4.3% over the past week, with WTI crude oil futures now trading around $43.3 per barrel. The crude oil market has slipped as traders focused on a growing supply glut after the U.S. Energy Information Administration revealed a 2.3 million-barrel build in U.S. crude stocks last week, or more than double what the markets expected.

“The high U.S. inventory data suggest oversupply will remain for longer than expected,” Hans van Cleef, senior energy economist at ABN AMRO Bank N.V., told CNBC. “On top of that, anticipation of a higher dollar if the Fed starts to hike rates is negative for oil prices. And there’s also uncertainty about the likelihood of OPEC/non-OPEC action at the end of the month.”