It Could be a Golden Summer For Gold ETFs

Gold prices are flirting with their highest levels in two years, providing a boost to exchange traded products such as the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEArca: GLD), iShares Gold Trust (NYSEArca: IAU) and ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Shares (NYSEArca: SGOL). That could be sign that although volatility could ebb, gold could maintain its already impressive year-to-date performance.

Although investors are embracing gold ETFs, some argue that many remain under-allocated to the yellow metal and that the second half of this year could bring another wave of capital into ETFs like SOGL.

Some analysts still believe that is possible gold ascends to $1,500 per troy ounce. Gold bullion prices have surged almost 20% this year as the Fed previously signaled it would slow the pace of interest rate normalization this year – higher interest rates typically weigh on gold prices since the hard asset provide no yield and would become less attractive to higher-yielding conservative debt assets in a rising rate environment.

“We continue to like the precious metals complex long given the topping out of the dollar rally, still low risk free rates, late seasonal strength and a more robust political landscape throughout the developed markets – we like calls and  call spreads on GLD,” according to a Weeden & Co. note posted by Dimitra DeFotis of Barron’s.

SEE MORE: A Very Positive Forecast for Gold ETFs

In the note posted by Barron’s, Weeden & Co. also highlighted opportunity with higher beta precious metals assets, including the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDX) and the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDXJ). Gold and silver miners stocks and ETFs are among this year’s best-performing groups. For example, GDX and GDXJ have each more than double year-to-date.


Gold miners currently trade at about a 59% discount to gold prices since 2009, have a price-to-book value of 1.0x and an average dividend yield of 2.8%, which makes the sector look attractive from a valuation standpoint.