U.S. Dollar ETF Outlook Split at Best

The U.S. dollar and exchange traded products such as the PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSEArca: UUP), which tracks the price movement of the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies, including the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc, remain in precarious positions.

While the greenback has gotten a post-Brexit lift, the Federal Reserve’s impact on the greenback looms large. On Wednesday, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes revealed the Fed is concerned about the U.S. labor market. That is prompting some traders to think an interest rate hike this year is nearly out of the question, a sentiment that is dollar negative.

Related: Are Dollar ETFs Ready to Rally?

The U.S. dollar has previously rallied on expectations for a tighter U.S. monetary policy, which would diminish the amount of dollars sloshing around the economy and prop up the greenback against foreign currencies. However, with Fed backtracking on its interest rate outlook, the dollar is losing some of its previous momentum.

Brexit, while dollar positive, is the latest in a string of concerning global macro trends that have many investors preparing for slower global economic growth. Obviously, the Fed is aware of such trends and if the central bank is preparing for slack growth, it is unlikely it would hike rates.


Still, there are alternative points of view. Some market observers believe the Fed can hike rates and that the dollar can continue moving higher.

“Deutsche Bank AG, the world’s No. 4 currency trader, says the prospects for gains in the dollar are increasing as improving financial conditions add to the case for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year,” according to Bloomberg.