CRAK tries to reflect the performance of the Market Vectors Global Oil Refiners Index, a modified market cap-weighted index that follows the largest and most liquid companies in the global oil refining industry.
“On our analysis, Marathon Petroleum (+19% upside), Delek (+13%), and HollyFrontier (+8%) screen best, with the group showing an average upside of 10% in the base case. While we acknowledge the potential for further underperformance given the notable downside risk to Street estimates (~26% downside risk to 2017 consolidated EBITDA vs ‘base case’ view), and the likelihood that the scenarios used in this analysis may take some time to play out, we believe current refiner share price levels offer an attractive entry point (or to add to positions) for longer-term investors,” according to a Deutsche Bank note posted by Ben Levisohn of Barron’s.
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Refiners are also investing in midstream assets, which can provide earnings and achieve higher midcycle returns, with less volatility, Good said.
Furthermore, many refiners have generated free cash flow, which have been returned to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks. While yields have remained relatively low, dividend growth is picking up.
Market Vectors Oil Refiners ETF