OPEC has kept up production to pressure high-cost rivals, such as the developing U.S. shale oil producers. The International Energy Agency expects it will take several years before OPEC can effectively price out high-cost producers. [Oil ETFs Face World-Record Supply Glut]
“BofA Merrill Lynch is the runnerup for most pessimistic, forecasting WTI to average $45/bbl this year; Morgan Stanley yesterday argued that scenarios with crude as low as $20/bbl are possible, but that is not its 2016 base forecast, as the bank expects crude to average $47.50 this year,” adds Seeking Alpha.
United States Oil Fund