The SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEArca: GLD), the world’s largest bullion-backed exchange traded fund is lower by nearly 2% over the past month, perhaps prompting some commodities market participants to think gold’s already lengthy bear market will be extended. However, some technical analysts see the potential for near-term upside in the downtrodden gold fund if certain parameters are met.
Bearish forecasts continue mounting against the yellow metal, confirming that gold is still in a lengthy bear market, giving some traders pause about how much more near-term upside the yellow metal has in store. [Doubters in Gold Rally]
Gold has been in a 2-year bear market, which has seen failed rallies on the back of various news events. Continued strength in the US economy and labor market has offset political and economic events since the Gold market turned bearish in 2013.
GLD “is in a bull flag on the daily chart. Beginning with the strong advance on Dec. 4, gold endured four sessions of sideways consolidation, all without meaningfully losing the support of its five-day and eight-day exponential moving averages (EMAs). As far as Friday’s session is concerned, the session’s bearish gap was closed within 20-minutes, and once again price closed above our shortest timeframe moving averages,” reports Bob Byrne for TheStreet.com.
Gold demand has also been wilting thanks to tepid buying in India and China’s inability to pickup the slack. China and India are the world’s two largest gold consumers. According to the World Gold Council, India imported 891.5 tons of gold last year while demand was 811.1 metric tons. The council believes consumption will increase to between 900 tons and 1,000 tons this year. [India Unlikely to Stem Gold’s Decline]