The Market Vectors Natural Resources ETF (NYSEArca: HAP) is one way investors can capitalize on a potential rebound in the commodities space after raw materials suffered a multi-year bear market.
“The history of markets suggests that an upward cycle in prices is inevitable,” Jan van Eck, CEO of Van Eck Global, said. “Putting aside the fact that the fundamentals, in general, may support a turnaround, if this is a traditional commodity cycle – and that is a big caveat – investors may continue to wonder when the mayhem will end. We believe that it could be reasonably soon.”
According to Van Eck, commodity prices may bottom out toward the end of the first quarter of 2016. Past commodity downturns have lasted about one-year-and-a-half, and we are only about one-year into the current downtrend.
Looking at oil prices, West Texas Intermediate crude oil returns are near historic lows. Price cycles typically last 15 months, and the current oil downturn is 15 months. Moreover, the lows of trailing 18-month price returns for WTI have historically been tested at -50%, which we’ve already seen this year, and oil prices usually do not correct more than 50%.
The Market Vectors Natural Resource ETF may be a good way for investors to capitalize on a turn in the commodities space. For instance, a rebound in oil prices could help support HAP, which includes a 41.8% tilt toward energy stocks.
Potential investors, though, keep in mind that HAP is a based on an index of global commodity equities. The underlying Rogers-Van Eck Natural Resources Index was developed in concert with commodities guru trader Jim Rogers and tracks companies involved int he production and distribution of commodity-related products and services. Furthermore, the underlying index includes water and renewable energy as well.