“At this point, I’ll guess an end-year EUR/USD rate at 1.11 and a range for the next month or two of 1.05-1.15. A wide range that reflects uncertainty. However, given a Fed forecast of unemployment bottoming out soon, I’d also guess that a continuation of the 204k rate of [non-farm payroll] gains of the last 5 years will take unemployment lower, faster and make the market move towards the pace of hikes that is implied by the dots. That will/should support the dollar over time. EUR/USD will get to parity, just not yet,” according to a Societe Generale note posted by Chris Dieterich of Barron’s.
UUP is down 1.5% over the past month while FXE is higher by 2.5% over the same period.
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