However, even the implication that the Fed’s next rate hike after this week could be several months off could be enough to dampen near-term enthusiasm for the dollar and ETFs like UUP. Some market observers recently noted the dollar should rise against the euro next year, but that the common currenc’s losses against its U.S. rival will not be nearly as severe in 2016 as was seen this year.
“Using history as a guide, Ruskin and Saravelos suggest that in real terms against a basket of currencies, the US dollar has tended to fully recover prior declines, with rallies traditionally occurring over a shorter period than the weakening cycles they have followed. Based on past relationships, it suggests that the bull market in the US dollar will probably run for a further two years and result in gains of at least 10% based on their analysis,” according to Business Insider.
PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish Fund