Investors holding long positions in exchange traded products such as the United States Oil Fund (NYSEArca: USO), which tracks West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures, and the United States Brent Oil Fund (NYSEArca: BNO), which tracks Brent crude oil futures, will love the bullishness of the following oil price forecast for 2016.
USO and BNO are both down more than 47% year-to-date and West Texas Intermediate futures closed at $34.74 per barrel on Thursday, but some analysts think crude is in for big things next year. Specifically, Saxo Bank said oil could $100 per barrel next year, though the cautionary tale here is that forecast was unveiled in report outlining 10 events the bank deems as unlikely for 2016.
“While oil prices are under a lot of pressure heading into 2016, they will soon rally and bring $100 a barrel back onto the horizon. This will happen as OPEC — after struggling with the economic pain of weak oil prices — decides to cut production and break the downward price spiral, triggering a quick recovery with investors rushing to re-enter the market,” reports Sara Sjolin for MarketWatch, citing the Saxo Bank report.
Last week, crude oil prices fell to their lowest levels since early 2009 after OPEC’s meeting Friday ended without an agreement to lower production, Reuters reports. OPEC has been fueling a global supply glut in an attempt to maintain market share and squeeze out high-cost oil producers, such as the nascent shale industry in the U.S.
OPEC has kept up production to pressure high-cost rivals, such as the developing U.S. shale oil producers. The International Energy Agency expects it will take several years before OPEC can effectively price out high-cost producers. [Oil ETFs Face World-Record Supply Glut]