While the markets were experiencing heightened uncertainty Monday, the frequency of volatile days may be diminishing. October usually experiences the most volatility with the VIX peaking during 5 years in the month, and the Volatility Index typically troughs over December as it has during the 7 precious years, Nicholas Colas, Chief Market Strategist at ConvergEx, said in a research note.
Over the past half-century, there have only been plus 1% an d minus 1% stock market moves on average of 2.4 days each in November, and 2.3 up days and 1.9 down days on average in December.
“There are a few potential days left for 1% returns either way, enough to determine whether the S&P 500 finishes in positive territory for the year as it’s up 2% year-to-date,” Colas said. “December’s Federal Reserve meeting could rile the market, but overall, expect gradual returns this month and next as opposed to the wide swings of the past few.”
iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN
For more information on the CBOE Volatility Index, visit our VIX category.
Max Chen contributed to this article.