2 Reasons To Be Skeptical Of Value ETFs Surge

Value stocks and related exchange traded funds have rebounded over the past month but the rally may not last.

Over the past month, value stocks have outpaced the growth category. For instance, the iShares S&P 500 Value ETF (NYSEArca: IVE), Vanguard S&P 500 Value ETF (NYSEArca: VOOV) and SPDR S&P 500 Value ETF (NYSEArca: SPYV) were up 4.5% in the past month.

Meanwhile, the iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF (NYSEArca: IVW), Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF (NYSEArca: VOOG) and SPDR S&P 500 Growth ETF (NYSEArca: SPYG) rose 3.6% over the past month. Additionally, the broader SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEArca: SPY), iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (NYSEArca: IVV) and Vanguard 500 Index (NYSEArca: VOO) gained 4.1%.

However, Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s chief U.S. equity strategist, argues that conditions “are not yet in place” for investors to benefit from tilting their holdings toward value stocks as companies have not reached a point where they can sustain the recovery, reports David Wilson for Bloomberg.

“It is tempting to rotate into value” after the turnaround, Lakos-Bujas said, but there are two factors weighing on the asset category.

  1. The Federal Reserve may still hike interest rates in December, and energy companies, commodity producers and other firms dependent on emerging markets are vulnerable to losses if rates rise.
  2. There is no guarantee that a “reflation trade” benefiting value stocks will develop, especially with the consumer price index only rising 1.3% last month year-over-year and overall inflation still stubbornly below the Fed’s 2% target.

Consequently, Lakos-Bujas advises investors to stick to targeted value plays like housing-related companies and energy producers in the best position to weather lower oil prices.