The SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEArca: GLD), iShares Gold Trust (NYSEArca: IAU) and ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Shares (NYSEArca: SGOL) and other gold-related exchange traded products have perked up in recent weeks with GLD, the world’s largest gold ETF, rising more than 3% over the past month.
Dragging on the gold market, volatility is beginning to ease after markets try to recover from the swift correction – gold is seen as a safe-haven asset that provides a good store of wealth during tumultuous market conditions. Additionally, the U.S. dollar is beginning to strengthen against foreign currencies – gold is priced in USD, so further buying becomes pricier for foreign investors. [Gold ETFs Regain Ground]
Additionally, gold is seeing greater support from safe-haven demand after currency devaluations across Asia added to investment demand for a better store of value than paper currencies or stocks and bonds. Bullion was recovering lost ground after dropping to a five-year low last month on concerns that the Fed would hike rates as early as September. Obviously, a rate hike for 2015 can now only happen in October or December.
Although precious metals ETFs have recently displayed some strength, gold is still in a lengthy bear market, giving some traders pause about how much more near-term upside the yellow metal has in store.
“In recent months we have seen Treasuries and Stocks decline and gold rise, but despite that movement the ratios still point higher. Only the ratio of high risk bonds versus gold has started to turn over, perhaps signifying that investors are wary of underlying market conditions and are starting to seek safety over return. Regardless, gold is still not a favoured asset class by any means, and there is little evidence to support wholesale trend change at the current time,” according to a Seeking Alpha post.
Gold has been in a 2-year bear market, which has seen failed rallies on the back of various news events. Continued strength in the US economy and labor market has offset political and economic events since the Gold market turned bearish in 2013.
“All in all, we don’t yet have the fundamental environment in place to support a big rally in the gold price, and in fact we possibly have a situation where we should expect the gold price to decline further,” notes the Seeking Alpha piece.
SPDR Gold Shares
Tom Lydon’s clients own shares of GLD.
The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are solely those of Tom Lydon, and may not actually come to pass. Information on this site should not be used or construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any product.