The PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSEArca: UUP) and the actively managed WisdomTree Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Bullish Fund (NYSEArca: USDU) have steadied after the Federal Reserve declined to raise interest rates last month, but the these ETFs, it really is all about the Fed and the central bank’s next move on interest rates.
UUP and the dollar have modestly regained some momentum over the past two weeks, indicating that has market volatility continues to be an issue, the dollar’s safe-haven status could be reaffirmed.
A lack of inflation is also seen as a potential deterrent to the Fed imminently hiking rates. The diminished inflation expectations has bolstered demand for long-term maturities. The spread between two- and 30-year securities dipped for a fourth day after contracting to as little as 208 basis points Monday, the least since April 28, Bloomberg reports.
Long-term Treasuries have strengthened and yields dipped on the continued decline in oil prices helped push down inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, short-term Treasury yields have been anchored as speculators bet on a slow interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve. [Low Inflation Lifts ETFs]
“While we have seen many Fed officials continue to talk of the likelihood of a rate hike at the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for mid-December, mixed economic data on top of the weak jobs number may be enough to convince the Fed to maintain the current accommodative rate policy into 2016. Fed Funds futures traders have all but nixed the possibility of a rate hike at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, with the October Fed Funds futures pricing-in only a 6% chance of a rate hike. For December, the odds of a rate hike increase, but futures are only looking at a 31% probability at the December meeting. It is not until the March 2016 meeting where the Fed Funds futures are looking at an over 50% chance of a rate hike. As we all know alot can happen in the global economy in the next 6 months, so traders should be prepared for continued market volatility going into the New Year,” according to Options Express.
The actively managed USDU’s advantage over UUP in recent weeks is likely attributable to the former’s exposure to some faltering emerging markets currencies, including the Mexican peso, Chinese yuan and Brazilian real. UUP tracks the U.S. Dollar Index, which follows the dollar against a basket of developed market currencies.
Looking at the weekly continuation chart for Dollar Index futures, we notice the market making a series of lower highs since the market made 12-year highs back in March. Prices are currently holding near the 20-week moving average, as we appear to be in the midst of a consolidation phase. The 14-week RSI has turned neutral, with a current reading of 52.70. We do see chart support near 92.35 for the front-month futures with resistance found near 98.45,” according to Options Express.
PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish Fund
The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are solely those of Tom Lydon, and may not actually come to pass. Information on this site should not be used or construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any product.