It might have just gotten easier to pinpoint exactly when the Federal Reserve will finally raise interest rates. The odds of that happening next month have noticeably surged this week.
“The chances of an interest-rate increase next month reached 52 percent Wednesday, up from just 38 percent just two days earlier. What’s fueled the change of heart? Hawkish comments from Fed Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart on Tuesday, and a surprisingly strong report on U.S. service-sector growth Wednesday morning,” reports Alexandra Scaggs for Bloomberg.
With traders betting the central bank is going to hike rates at its September meeting, bearish Treasury exchange traded funds, already among this year’s top-performing fixed income ETFs, could received renewed attention.
Inverse Treasury bond ETFs, such as the Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (NYSEArca: TMV) and the Direxion 7-10 year Treasury Bear 3x (NYSEArca: TYO), could help hedge a long fixed-income investment portfolio against a turn in the Treasuries market if interest rates begin to rise.
TMV attempts to deliver triple the daily inverse returns of the NYSE Current 20-Year U.S. Treasury Index. The Federal Reserve interest rate hike has been a major point of concern for market players. In anticipation of higher rates ahead, investors can utilize inverse ETFs to hedge their fixed-income portfolio’s duration risk – the measure of a bond fund’s sensitivity to changes in interest rates, so a fund with a longer duration has a greater risk of price depreciation in response to rising rates. [Inverse ETFs for Market Turns]
With 10-year Treasury yields up 16.4% over the past six months, TMV has climbed more than 8% over that period. Friday’s July jobs report will play a pivotal role in how soon the Fed raises interest rates. A large number of added jobs and a drop in the unemployment could give the Fed the room it needs to lift rates.