We haven’t seen much of an impact on the global economy so far. The selloff in China could impact the U.S. via its effect on the dollar, consumer confidence and business confidence. We haven’t seen this. Indeed, despite all the recent drama in China and Greece, the global economy and markets aren’t too far off the trajectory they were on in early 2015.
While global growth for 2015 is, once again, likely to come in below estimates, the recent volatility in China’s equity market is unlikely to exacerbate the slowdown. Growth in Europe continues to firm. In the United States, some improvement in wage growth should help the economy pick up in the back half of the year. The longer-term slowdown in China is likely to continue, but the events of the past few months won’t have a material impact on the trajectory. The bottom line: I still expect slow, but positive global growth for the year.