The Turkey exchange traded fund has fallen off over the past week after a string of attacks in the region and an uncertain political environment weighed on investors. However, some believe the recent sell-off has left a more appealing entry point.
Over the past week, the iShares MSCI Turkey ETF (NYSEArca: TUR) has plunged 7.9%.
Istanbul’s benchmark stock index has underperformed the MSCI Emerging Market Index amid political upheaval – Turkey’s ruling party failed to secure a majority in the June national elections, which created uncertainty in the markets as the country works on hodgepodge coalition.
The uncertainty was exacerbated after a suicide bombing, attacks on security forces and Turkish strikes on Islamic State forces in neighboring Syria over the past week, reports Josie Cox for the Wall Street Journal.
However, after the recent selling sent the local index to its sharpest weekly plunge in 10 months, JPMorgan Chase & Co. argues that the Turkish equities have become more appealing, Bloomberg reports. The bank says that Turkey is the only market across central and eastern Europe, along with the Middle East, to be considered “inexpensive.” [Russia, Turkey ETFs May Be Opportunities in Emerging Market Space]
Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch also recommends taking a look at Turkish industrial companies with strong earnings and growth prospects.
The industrials sector is the second largest component in TUR at 15.0% of the ETF’s underlying holdings.
JPMorgan believes that most of the negative news have been priced into the market, so any improvement in economic or political scenarios would immediately bolster stocks.
“I don’t think you actually need a coalition government for Turkey to outperform if the market was already pricing a fairly bad outcome,” Andres Garcia-Amaya, an emerging-markets macro research analyst at JPMorgan Investment Management, said in the Bloomberg article. “If a coalition were to occur, Turkey will outperform further.”
Michel Danechi of Duet Asset Management Ltd. even contends that Turkish political parties could unite under the common cause of pushing back IS extremists.
“It increases the chance for a coalition, so is actually positive,” Danechi said in the Bloomberg article.
Moreover, as a net importer of oil, Turkey would benefit from the cheap fuel prices, which would eventually translate to stronger markets, according to Pinar Uslu, a strategist at ING Bank.
iShares MSCI Turkey ETF
For more information on Turkey, visit our Turkey category.
Max Chen contributed to this article.
The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are solely those of Tom Lydon, and may not actually come to pass. Information on this site should not be used or construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any product.