Over the short-term, Goldman argues that currency volatility will be centered around a potential breakdown in negotiations between Greece and creditors. The EUR has been trading lower, despite the positive Greek news so far, as traders utilize the euro in a carry trade – the Eurozone has some of the cheapest interest rates – to fund bets on riskier markets.
Moreover, even if a Greek deal is signed, Goldman anticipates only a small move in the euro against the dollar “in the order of half to one big figure” since the markets are already positioned for a deal and will unlikely “address the growth crisis in Greece.”
“The Fed move is the bigger mover for euro/dollar than Greece at the moment. Greece makes for short-term volatility, but the bigger trends are the Fed, the U.S. economy,” Berenberg Bank’s Chief Economist, Holger Schmieding, told CNBC.
Currency traders who are looking to profit off weakness in the EUR ahead can utilize inverse euro-currency ETF options as well. For example, the ProShares Short Euro (NYSEArca: EUFX) provides 100% of the inverse or opposite return on the U.S. dollar price of the euro. The ProShares UltraShort Euro (NYSEArca: EUO) provides 200% of the inverse return of the U.S. dollar price of the euro. Lastly, the Market Vectors Double Short Euro ETN (NYSEArca: DRR) also provides a -200% exposure to the euro. Over the past week, EUFX rose 0.6%, EUO gained 1.2% and DRR increased 0.7%.
For more information on the greenback, visit our U.S. dollar category.
Max Chen contributed to this article.