Oil exchange traded fund traders shouldn’t get too comfortable with the rebound in energy prices as the continued U.S. shale oil boom and rising production out of Organized Petroleum Exporting Countries could fuel the ongoing glut.
Since the March lows, the United States Oil Fund (NYSEArca: USO), which tracks West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures, rose 28.1%, United States Brent Oil Fund (NYSEArca: BNO) gained 21.9% and the Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSEArca: XLE) increased 9.3%. [Traders Quick to Reap Profits in Oil ETFs]
However, in a recent note titled New Oil Order, Goldman Sachs has issued a warning on the energy space, cutting its long-term WTI crude oil price forecasts to $50 per barrel from $60 by the end of the decade, reports Julie Verhage for Bloomberg.
“We see potential for OPEC/the US to gain share longer term, even as WTI falls from $60 to $50 by the end of the decade,” Goldman analysts said.
On Monday, WTI crude oil futures were trading around $59.8 per barrel while Brent crude oil futures were hovering around $66.4 per barrel.
Goldman argues that the U.S. hydraulic shale fracturing boom will continue even as OPEC obstinately refuses diminish production. For instance, while oil frackers reboot operations in the U.S. with oil prices higher, Saudi Arabia’s crude exports in March rose to their highest in almost a decade, Reuters reports. [Energy ETFs: Drillers Can Shoot Their Own Feet If Not Careful]