A Contrarian Bet on Long-Term Treasury ETFs | ETF Trends

The Treasuries market is selling off and yields are rising. However, without a Federal Reserve interest rate hike immediately hanging over our heads, contrarian investors may take a look at long-term Treasury bond exchange traded funds.

Jeffrey Gundlach, chief executive of investment firm DoubleLine Capital, argued that the Fed will probably not hike rates this year due to the lack of wage inflation, reports Jennifer Ablan for Reuters.

Currently, there is not enough wage growth. If consumers are not generating higher incomes, they are not buying more goods, a precursor to demand-induced inflation.

“Get out of high-yield bonds and buy Treasuries” when the Fed starts pushing rates up, Gundlach said. “Worked in every single Fed rate hike in history.”

Long-term Treasuries have recently taken a beating. For instance, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEArca: TLT) fell 7.4%, PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon US Treasury (NYSEArca: ZROZ) declined 12.7% and Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (NYSEArca: EDV) dropped 11.7% over the past three months. The long-term Treasury bond ETFs are now trading below their 200-day simple moving average. [Inflationary Concerns Send Treasury ETFs Below Long-Term Support]

If the Fed does hike rates without the necessary inflation, Gundlach contended that we would be only be importing deflation as many foreign central banks are enacting a beggar-thy-neighbor policies through low rates and quantitative easing.