Shares of social media giant Twitter (NYSE: TWTR) are off about 1.1% ahead of the company’s first-quarter earnings report due out of after the close of U.S. markets today.
The move for the stock and the exchange traded funds that hold it could be significantly larger than today’s intraday move if the options market is an accurate gauge.
“Twitter’s 30-day realized volatility, which measures how much the stock moves, is in its first percentile, according to Trade Alert. While stock swings in general have been muted in recent weeks, Twitter’s stock has been quieter than the broader market. The S&P 500’s 30-day realized volatility is in its 39th percentile and the Dow’s 30-day realized volatility is in its 53rd percentile,” reports Saumya Vaishampayan for the Wall Street Journal.
Bottom line: Twitter shares could move as much as 9.5% in either direction following its earnings update, the Journal reports, citing TD Ameritrade. Analysts expect the California-based company to earn 4 cents a share on revenue of $456 million.
Several ETFs feature large weights to Twitter and could be also jolted following the company’s earnings report, including the Renaissance IPO ETF (NYSEArca: IPO). IPO has a weight of 9.8% to Twitter, making the stock the ETF’s largest holding.
Twitter’s almost 43% year-to-date jump has powered IPO higher by 10%, helping the ETF endure Alibaba’s (NYSE: BABA) 18.3% decline. Alibaba is IPO’s second-largest holding. Even more impressive about IPO’s strength this year is that the ETF has not yet added some recent hot IPOs such as Shake Shak (NYSE: SHAK). Then again, IPO has also benefited from taking a pass on the likes of GoPro (NasdaqGS: GPRO), which is down 27.2% this year, and Etsy (NasdaqGS: ETSY), which has plunged 14.2% since its recent IPO. [IPO ETF Endures as IPOs Struggle]
IPO’s chief rival, the First Trust US IPO Index Fund (NYSEArca: FPX) has a Twitter weight of just 0.44%.
The recently resurgent Global X Social Media Index ETF (NasdaqGM: SOCL), an ETF that is up more than 17% over the past 90 days, is another credible “Twitter ETF.” SOCL devotes 4.3% of its weight to Twitter, making the stock the ETF’s ninth-largest holding. That said SOCL is driven more by Tencent (OTC: TCEHY), Facebook (NasdaqGS: FB) and LinkedIn (NYSE: LNKD) than Twitter. That trio combines for almost 34% of the ETF’s weight. [Social Media ETF Leadership]
The actively managed ARK Web x.0 ETF (NYSEArca: ARKW) and the ARK Innovation Fund (NYSEArca: ARKK) have weights to Twitter of 3.87% and 2.47%, respectively. The First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund (NYSEArca: FDN) also has a 3.87% allocation to Twitter.
Renaissance IPO ETF
Tom Lydon’s clients own shares of Facebook.