The U.S. dollar has been quickly appreciating and further strength in the greenback could put further pressure on some emerging markets and country-specific exchange traded funds.
For instance, Oxford Economics warned that Malaysia, Chile and Turkey were among the emerging markets most at risk of a stronger USD, reports Ansuya Harjani for CNBC.
“A simple textbook view of the issue might be that a rise in the dollar’s value could be good for emerging markets as it would improve their export competitiveness vis-à-vis the U.S.,” Adam Slater, senior economist at Oxford Economics, said in a report. “[But], there are a number of channels through which a stronger dollar may damage growth in emerging market countries.”
Slater identified six factors that could weigh on these at risk countries, including net commodity exports as a percentage of gross domestic product, inflation, private debt as percentage of GDP, total external debt as a percentage of GDP, short-term debt as a percentage of foreign exchange reserves and debt-weighted exchange rate movement since mid-2014.
An appreciating greenback increases the burden of dollar-denominated debt, lowers commodity prices and impedes capital inflows. [Strong USD Forces Down Emerging Market ETFs]
Over the past year, the iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF (NYSEArca: EWM) declined 11.6%, iShares MSCI Chile Capped ETF (NYSEArca: ECH) decreased 9.4% and iShares MSCI Turkey ETF (NYSEArca: TUR) dipped 5.6%. In contrast, the broader iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEArca: EEM) was up 0.1% over the past year.