As records go, you can’t beat 12 for 12. Perfection is good … and bad.
Muni investors enjoyed a perfect run in 2014 as the market notched a positive return each and every month, leading the S&P Municipal Bond Index to an annual return of 9.26%.
What could be bad about that? It sets some pretty lofty expectations for 2015. I’d like to provide some context and perspective for investors.
The Stars Aligned in 2014
The stars aligned in spectacular fashion for the municipal bond market in 2014: Low supply amid solid demand, improving fiscal conditions among state and local issuers, and a broad drop in interest rates (and rise in bond prices) helped make munis one of the top-performing fixed income asset classes of the year.
Many of the favorable dynamics remain firmly intact at the start of 2015. But we don’t expect 2015 to be a 2014 repeat, if only for the simple fact that munis aren’t built to provide 9% returns. They are intended to be a high-quality, relatively low-volatility source of income. Also consider the fact that the Federal Reserve is likely going to start raising interest rates this year, and that will create volatility and some measure of uncertainty for all fixed income assets.
What Is in the Stars for 2015?
In setting expectations for 2015, a look at long-term patterns is informative. Historically, returns in the year following a bounce back year (and yes, 2014 was a big bounce from a dismal 2013) have been two-thirds lower than the bounce. Given a return of 9.26% in 2014, that would equate to a return of roughly 3%-3.5% in 2015.
More importantly though, municipal bonds’ income proposition remains very compelling. Long-term muni yields are attractive relative to Treasuries before tax, and especially after tax. At January 30, we had a 30-year muni yield of 2.50% vs. 2.22% on a 30-year Treasury. Pretty good. But factor in munis’ tax exemption, and that’s a 4.42% taxable equivalent yield on a 30-year municipal bond.* Really good. It’s little surprise municipal bonds are attracting the attention of crossover buyers (i.e., taxable investors). We expect that crossover interest to continue, bolstering demand and supporting muni prices in 2015.