Devoted followers of the iShares MSCI Thailand Capped ETF (NYSEArca: THD) know the lone Thailand exchange traded fund has hit some rough patches over the years due to Thailand’s penchant for political volatility.
Last week, the Thai parliament today voted to impeach former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and moved forward with criminal charges against Shinawatra for her role in a rice price-fixing scandal. She could face up to 10 years in jail if found guilty on the criminal charges. She has also been banned from leaving the country.
While being imprisoned in Thailand for any amount of time sounds like something out of an episode of “Locked Up Abroad” or the 1999 classic “Brokedown Palace,” the thought of another Thai prime minister facing criminal charges sounds like the recipe for trouble for THD.
That has not been the case this year. THD is up 5.3% year-to-date, the second-best performance among single-country ETFs tracking Southeast Asian markets behind the iShares MSCI Philippines ETF (NYSEArca: EPHE). [A Roaring Asian Tiger ETF]
THD’s technical outlook indicates more upside could be on the way and that a return to the $90s (and the ETF’s all-time high set in May 2013), could be in the offing. Let’s start with taking out the mid-$80s first, which could happen in the near-term.
“is showing us a double bottom with the characteristic Big W shape. The Double bottom suggests a run to last falls highs. Take a look at the Higher Lows creating a Bullish Momentum Divergence. The pattern of this bottom suggests a possible price target of $86,” according to Captain John Charts.
Fundamentals are also supportive of more upside for THD and Thai equities. While some observers may believe Thailand is still rife with political volatility, especially after the military took control in May, Thailand’s economy and incomes have historically expanded faster and remained more stable under the three times the military led government, compared to the nine civilian ones. [Thailand ETF Resilient in the Face of Political Fears]