Consumer discretionary ETFs are sensitive to oil prices, as highlighted by PEJ’s nearly 17% gain over the past 90 days while the United States Oil Fund (NYSEArca: USO) has shed 43.5% over the same period. That underscores the fact PEJ’s recent returns have been driven by much more than Mickey Mouse.
Unlike traditional, cap-weighted discretionary ETFs, PEJ features notable allocations to Royal Caribbean Cruises (NYSE: RCL) and Carnival (NYSE: CCL), two names that are extremely sensitive to oil fluctuations. Those two stocks, which combine for 10% of PEJ’s weight, are up 46.6% and 32.3%, respectively, over the past 90 days.
There are more reasons to consider PEJ, particularly if interest rates in 2015. The consumer discretionary sector has a 0.06 correlation to Treasury yields compared to -0.5 for utilities, according to J.P. Morgan data. Additionally, discretionary is expected to be one of just two sectors to show double-digit dividend growth this year. Financial services is the other. [Cyclical ETFs Could Shine in 2015]
PowerShares Dynamic Leisure and Entertainment Portfolio