There has been considerable interest in 40 and 45 strike calls, and given EWZ’s moves lately (it had a $54 handle just nine trading sessions ago), a $5 move in the ETF at current levels would likely surprise no one,” said Weisbruch. “There have also been some instances where out of the money calls have been sold by those perhaps seeking current income and believing that the likelihood of a monster rally in Brazil post elections is nothing more than a hope and prayer. For example, we saw some larger call selling in the December 54 strike calls recently in EWZ which would be an example of such a trade.”

The bottom line is this: It would not be surprising to see EWZ and friends rally if Neves wins, nor would it be surprising to see Brazil stocks and ETFs tumble if Rousseff wins a second term.

With Friday’s close at $41.57, EWZ’s November $41 calls are now in the money and open interest in those calls is more than double the open interest in the same strike’s puts. Conversely, open interest in EWZ’s November $42 puts, which are clinging to still being in the money, is more than quadruple the open interest in the same strike’s calls, according to OptionMonster data.

EWZ November 2014 Options

Table Courtesy: OptionMonster

Tom Lydon’s clients own shares of EEM.