With election day in Brazil just five days away, investors can expect more volatility from Brazilian stocks and the iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (NYSEArca: EWZ). Data indicate as much.
Entering Monday, EWZ, the largest and most heavily Brazil ETF, had “a 30-day implied volatility of 70%. This means that the options market is pricing in a move of plus or minus 20% on EWZ within the next month,” reports Mike Zaccardi for See It Market.
EWZ’s volatility was on full-display Monday when the ETF sank 3.7% on heavy volume after MDA’s first poll since Brazil’s Oct. 5 first-round election showed President Dilma Rousseff with 45.5% of voter support compared to 44.5% for challenger Aecio Neves. “Excluding undecided voters, spoiled and blank survey responses, Rousseff has 50.5 percent against 49.5 percent for Rousseff,” according to Reuters.
Some market participants view the election of Neves as essential to further upside for EWZ and Brazilian equities because Neves has pledged to make Arminio Fraga Brazil’s next finance minister. Aside from holding a degree of Princeton, Fraga is an alumni of George Soros’ famous Quantum Fund and a former hedge fund manager in his own right. Four years ago, Fraga’s Gavea Investments was acquired by J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM). [Rousseff Rattles Brazil ETFs]
“Turning to the price chart, EWZ dropped sharply in early September following an August rally. EWZ dropped 24% following the September peak. A relatively mild October rally of 16% took place, however the rebound stalled at the 50% retracement of the September decline. Bulls would like to see the $48 level cleared, while bears will look to take EWZ below $41. With a 30 day implied volatility of 70, either of these levels will likely be reached very soon,” notes Zaccardi in the See It Market Post.