ETF Trends
ETF Trends

When the SPX (S&P 500 Index) topped out at 2019.26 on an intraday basis just ten trading sessions ago (yes this actually did happen, albeit briefly) I think full realization hit me that the daily index value itself, is much more interesting when I can associate it to a near “year.” I.E. 2019 is not too far from the current year 2014, another level that we traded at only twice in history, on the way up to 2019 those ten trading sessions ago and once more on the way back down that same day when we closed lower.

These levels seem like distant memories after this week now with the SPX closing at 1946.17 today. In fact, we kid you not, the SPX gapped down as low as 1926.03 on an intraday basis but it was not there long, an eight point rally almost immediately followed, and then we drifted even higher throughout the rest of the session. If we think about the SPX index values in terms of time, or “years” that they may represent, that also gets us thinking of music of course. Top music of 2014? Meghan Trainor, Taylor Swift, and Nicki Minaj? No thanks, I think I’ll pass.

In fact, if there is no other valid reason to want to be short the SPX at 2014 other than on the basis of the “top” music of the day, we have heard crazier ideas fly and gather assets successfully. Top music of 1946? Perry
Como, Eddy Howard, Ink Spots? Zzzzz…a slight uptick over the 2014 selection but not a keeper. Top music of 1925 if we get back down there (we still have one day left of this mostly scary week for equities)? Gene Austin, Ben Bernie & His Orchestra, and Eddie Cantor.

These are not exactly the tunes to keep the bulls awake. On the way down to current SPX levels, we did have a brief amount of “stickiness” in the SPX 1972-1975 range because there “were”, and we stress the word “were” a confluence of levels in that range, beginning with the 38% Fibonacci retracement level of 1972 and the 50 day MA of 1975ish. These levels now, are not acting like support however, but will undoubtedly be decent short term upside resistance, and that’s “if” we get back up there. It wasn’t two weeks ago that we saw SPX year end projections of 2,100, 2,300, 2,400 and we are here on October 3rd, well off of the alltime, and recent SPX highs.

A target of 2300 would mean that the SPX would have to increase an additional 15%, assuming it was at 2000 today, on top of an already 6%+ upside move on the year thus far. Time may simply run out on the Year 2014 Bull Crowd now that we entered October on a sour note with Perry Como droning the crowd to sleep.

Before we hear the media celebrate the SPX crossing above the 2000 level for the thirteenth time, yet it never seems to stay up there for too long, for the Bulls’ sake can we at least get back to the 1970-1975 levels again where we could get some much needed relief via music quality and possibly hear some late Beatles, The Guess Who, David Bowie, The Jackson 5, Eric Burdon & War, Elton John, Pink Floyd, The Rolling Stones, Led Zeppelin, some late Doors and Joplin.

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