The steel industry exchange traded fund may continue to slide as iron ore prices crumble over the short-term before finding strength later this year.
The Market Vectors Steel ETF (NYSEArca: SLX) was up 1.4% Tuesday but is still down 3.1% year-to-date.
Morgan Stanley analyst Joel Crane predicts that the steel-making raw material will see prices fall to the $70s-a-ton range over the near-term then rally toward $90 per ton by the end of the year, Bloomberg reports.
The iron ore spot price was hovering around $92.6 per ton Tuesday.
“We are of the firm belief that an adequate proportion of supply from the top end of the cost curve will come out, flatten the curve and ultimately secure levels of cost support,” Crane said. [Steel ETF Firms Up]
Iron ore dipped into a bear market this year after the biggest producers, such as Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO), expanded low-cost output and bet on higher volumes would offset falling prices.
Vale (NYSE: VALE) Chief Executive Officer Murilo Ferreira was more optimistic, estimating that iron ore could rise to as much as $100 per ton by the end of the year due to declining inventory at ports.