The personal consumption expenditures index only rose 1.6% in the 12 months through July, and the index has consistently fallen short of the Federal Reserve’s 2% target since April 2012. [TIPS ETFs Won’t Find Support From Falling Inflation]
Additionally, the strong U.S. dollar and weak inflation abroad may signal lower inflationary pressure at home for a while.
“If the dollar ended up being very strong that would lead us to have fewer inflationary pressures in terms of our index,” Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said, the Wall Street Journal reports.
William Bednar and Edward S. Knotek II, Cleveland Fed researchers, argue that low inflation overseas, notably in Europe and Japan, have dragged on U.S. inflation and the trend will continue.
“To the extent that this global inflation trend continues to be a useful predictor of future domestic inflation, its ongoing low readings compared with the survey of professional forecasters’ long-run forecasts of 2% point to the potential for additional subdued U.S. inflation ahead,” the researchers said.
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Max Chen contributed to this article.