When gold falls, silver usually feels some pain. That scenario is materializing once again with gold closing Thursday at its lowest levels in seven months.
The SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEArca: GLD) and the iShares Gold Trust (NYSEArca: IAU) are each of nearly 2% this month and that is crimping the style of ETFs backed by physical holdings of silver. This month, the iShares Silver Trust (NYSEArca: SLV) and the ETFS Physical Silver Shares (NYSEArca: SIVR) are down 2.4% apiece and things could get much worse from here for silver ETFs. [Shorts Scamper Into Silver]
That after decade’s low volatility in silver sparked a rally that saw the white metal jump 10% from late May through late July.
“One of the scariest looking charts in the world today has to be Silver. The other popular precious metal, Gold, is looking pretty terrible itself,” notes Eagle Bay Capital President and founder J.C. Parets.
Referring to weekly chart of silver, which is included at the end of this article, Parets goes on to say, “There are a few things that I want to point out here. First of all, notice how many times Silver has tested this support just below $19. This area is key because not only was this former resistance in 2010 but it also represents the 161.8% Fibonacci extension from the early 2012 counter trend rally, which was the biggest one before the eventual breakdown last year.”
Bottom line: Parets’ downside target for silver is $15, or nearly 17% below where SLV closed on Thursday.
Making that glum technical outlook for silver and ETFs such as SLV and SIVR all the more ominous is the acute weakness in gold at a time when the yellow metal is should be encouraging investors to get involved. September is usually the best month of the year in which to be long gold as bullion has posted an average gain of 3% in the ninth month of the year over the past two decades. [September Should be Good to Gold]